The Bamako blockade, the collapse of the protective myth, and the limits of AES-Russian backing

Abstract

This note examines the sequence opened in Mali by the coordinated attacks of 25 April 2026 and extended, through mid-May, by the blockade of Bamako, territorial reversals in the North, persistent violence in the Centre, and the reconfiguration of the security apex. The analysis focuses on whether Assimi Goita’s regime can restore the political, military, and symbolic equilibrium that had sustained it since 2021. The core claim is straightforward: the junta may still endure, but it no longer appears capable of reconstituting the previous configuration. The attacks of 25 April damaged four core pillars of the regime: the protective image of Kati and Bamako, the chain of command structured around Sadio Camara, the territorial credibility of the FAMa-Africa Corps arrangement, and the effectiveness of the sovereignist narrative carried by the AES and its digital relays. Drawing on work on the jihad of scarcity, legal authoritarianism, fragmented sovereignty, thwarted resilience, digitalization, and adaptive mechanisms, this note argues that Mali’s rulers have entered a phase of degraded survival in which coercion compensates less and less for the erosion of governing capacity.

Keywords: Mali; Assimi Goita; JNIM; Bamako; AES; authoritarianism; fragmented sovereignty; blockade

JEL Codes: D74; H56; O17; P16; F51